In this paper, we explore the drivers and implications of the recent uptick in fertility rates in Western Europe, assessing the potential for a ‘new demographic transition’ in the developed world….
– Virginie Maisonneuve, Head of Global and International Equities
– Katherine Davidson, Portfolio Manager, Global Demographic
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For professional investors and advisers only.This document is not suitable for retail
We have written in the past about declining fertility rates across Western Europe and the implications for growth, government finances and investment opportunities. However, over the last decade, many countries have experienced an unprecedented demographic development: a significant and persistent uptick in fertility rates, in many cases from ‘lowest low’ levels (<1.3 children per woman) . In others, notably German-speaking countries and Portugal, it has not materialised at all. In the past, demographers have noted two demographics phases: first the ‘original’ demographic transition, whereby mortality and fertility rates fall dramatically as a country develops; and second, the demographic transition whereby fertility rates plateau at sub-replacement level and the population ages. Are we now witnessing a ‘third demographic transition’? If so, what is driving it, why in only some countries, and what are the implications?
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the Azad Zangana, European Economist and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
For professional investors and advisers only.This document is not suitable for retail clients.
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Source: ETFWorld – Schroders
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